09.02.26 - 13.02.26
Results of the previous week
| RIVN +19.12% | VIX +8.71% | COTTON +1.89% |
NG -12.21% | USDJPY -2.21% | XAGUSD -1.89% |
Last week, US indices saw a moderate decline after coming under pressure from macroeconomic data. On the one hand, weaker-than-expected retail sales hint that the economy is not as strong as is wanted. On the other hand, labour market data reflected the sector's stability, which dashed expectations of a new stage of interest rate cuts.
On the foreign exchange market, the dollar is showing mixed movement. It started the week in a weak spot but ended it with an increase as a result of economic reports. The lower likelihood of the Federal Reserve softening its monetary policy had a positive effect on the US dollar's movement. The greenback strengthened against European currencies and metals.
Brent crude oil prices consolidated in the range between $67.40 and $70.00. It rose at the start of the week on fears of an escalation between the United States and Iran. In the meantime, information about the US's efforts to get more time to reach a nuclear agreement with Iran brought the temperature down a little and boosted expectations that the market will see excess oil supply, which caused oil prices to continue falling.
Key events of the current week
| Germany's ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment EUR/USD | DATE 17.02 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Germany's economy is experiencing extremely weak growth rates, remaining below 0.4% year over year. Signs of an economic cooldown are dampening business sentiment and economic outlooks for the next six months. Global analysts expect the ZEW Institute's Indicator of Economic Sentiment to drop. Weak movements among key macroeconomic indicators could signal to the ECB that it should resume its monetary easing cycle, which would be bad news for the euro. In this scenario, EUR/USD could decline to 1.1760. | |||||
| The UK. Inflation rate GBP/USD | DATE 18.02 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The UK's GDP growth rate is gradually slowing down. The latest data put the indicator at just 1% year over year. This indicates that the economy is gradually cooling down. In addition to this, global analysts expect inflation to decline in the reporting period. Combined, these two factors could push the Bank of England to make another key interest rate cut, which is unfavourable for the British pound. Against this background, GBP/USD may decline to 1.3500. | |||||
| The US. Durable goods orders USD/JPY | DATE 18.02 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Global analysts expect durable goods orders figures to drop. This is a worrying signal because fewer orders mean a slowdown in US manufacturing and investment in industry. If key macroeconomic indicators decline, it could push the Federal Reserve to start on a new round of monetary easing, especially since the regulator expects inflation to gradually decline to the Fed's target level. That's bad news for the dollar. In these conditions, USD/JPY could decline to 151.40. | |||||
